Stat Check - Meta Data Dashboard Update - August 2nd, 2022
Good morning 40k data geeks! The dashboard now includes the results from the past weekend's events, and now includes an "Event" filter - useful for identifying which events had which results when you're drilling down into the data, and for picking out what your local meta looks like. To that end, we're slowly but surely working through a "Region" filter, and will announce when it's ready. As always the Stat Check team of Anthony Vanella, Innes Wilson, and Nathan Henning will be discussing data about the current state of the game and making fun of one another on today's episode of Stat Check (10pm UTC / 6pm EST)!
Stat Check Meta Data Dashboard
Now that we're nearly 10k games into Nephilim, we can start to undertake slightly more interesting comparative analysis with the previous state of the game - Nachmund's 1.3 Knight meta. The results are (gasp) promising! We've placed the results for the first five weeks of both meta-states in the table below.
| Faction | Nachmund Win Rate | Nephilim Win Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyranids | 65% | 58% | -7% |
| Harlequins | 62% | 58% | -4% |
| Aeldari | 60% | 58% | -2% |
| Asuryani | 55% | 49% | -6% |
| T'au Empire | 54% | 48% | -6% |
| Adeptus Custodes | 54% | 50% | -4% |
| Drukhari | 52% | 54% | 2% |
| Chaos Knights | 51% | 49% | -2% |
| Adepta Sororitas | 49% | 56% | 7% |
| Iron Hands | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Salamanders | 48% | 47% | -1% |
| Grey Knights | 47% | 44% | -3% |
| Imperial Knights | 47% | 49% | 3% |
| Thousand Sons | 46% | 47% | 1% |
| Chaos | 45% | 32% | -13% |
| Imperium | 43% | 38% | -5% |
| Orks | 43% | 46% | 4% |
| Blood Angels | 42% | 44% | 3% |
| Chaos Daemons | 41% | 43% | 1% |
| Space Wolves | 41% | 43% | 2% |
| Dark Angels | 41% | 47% | 6% |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | 40% | 40% | 0% |
| Black Templars | 40% | 42% | 2% |
| Deathwatch | 40% | 41% | 1% |
| Genestealer Cult | 40% | 49% | 9% |
| Chaos Space Marines | 39% | 46% | 7% |
| Death Guard | 39% | 48% | 10% |
| White Scars | 38% | 41% | 3% |
| Ultramarines | 36% | 37% | 0% |
| Necrons | 35% | 52% | 17% |
| Astra Militarum | 35% | 39% | 4% |
| Raven Guard | 33% | 30% | -4% |
| Imperial Fists | 21% | 29% | 9% |
| Crimson Fists | 20% | 40% | 20% |
Since Nachmund's release in February. there have been at least two factions with win rates of 60% or more - Custodes, Tau, Harlequins, Aeldari, and Tyranids have all spent at least a month dominating the large tournament scene since the beginning of the year. For the first time, there aren't any factions with win rates of 60%. Additionally, there are only three factions with win rates between 55% and 60% - Harlequins at 58% (330 games played), Sisters at 57% (572 games played), and Tyranids at 59% (663 games played).
15 factions now reside in our informal "Goldilocks" win rate zone between 45% and 55%, up from Nachmund 1.3's 13.
For the most part, Nachmund's over-performing/broken factions have been reigned in - the previously mentioned Tyranids, Harlequins, Aeldari (and Asuryani) have all seen substantial hits to their performance. Conversely, previously under-performing factions have seen their fortunes improve - most of us know that Sisters and Necrons are doing much better now due to Nephilim's secondary design philosophy.
But quite a few other factions are doing better in Nephilim - Death Guard(+10%), Genestealer Cults (+9%), Chaos Space Marines (+7%), and Dark Angels (+6%) now find themselves surprisingly well balanced - not necessarily winning most games, and not doomed to failure before the dice start rolling.
Overall, faction performance is slowly converging back down from previous extremes, and that's a great thing! That said, we still issues with over-performing sub-factions - Bloody Rose Sisters (60% | 470 games played), Leviathan Tyranids (61%, 421 games played), and Light Harlequins (61% - 235 games played) still need to be reigned in, especially since those sub-factions comprise the majority of players for their respective factions.
Overall, we're optimistic about the next few months - we seem to be a couple of tweaks / releases away from the most balanced meta we've had since 2021, and we hope those changes are coming soon.
